{"id":7582,"date":"2014-11-07T14:47:44","date_gmt":"2014-11-07T13:47:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/euroalter.local\/?p=7582"},"modified":"2020-03-03T11:05:27","modified_gmt":"2020-03-03T10:05:27","slug":"orbans-trick","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/euroalter.com\/it\/orbans-trick\/","title":{"rendered":"Orb\u00e1n\u2019s trick"},"content":{"rendered":"

Article by\u00a0Hunor Kir\u00e1ly,\u00a0Foundation for Development of Democratic Rights (DemNet),\u00a0Budapest<\/em><\/p>\n

After mass protests against the internet tax<\/a>\u00a0in Hungary, Prime Minister Viktor Orb\u00e1n spoke about the issue on national radio. International media interpreted his statements as a retreat; a victory for the protesters \u2013 and democracy. They were wrong, and their headlines worked in Orb\u00e1n\u2019s favour. A retreat after demonstrations is an easy story to tell. However, his following steps, after his smoke and mirrors act,\u00a0will not be that easy to interpret, but the expected outcomes are even worse than the original law:\u00a0overall regulation of internet and the dampening down of a vociferous protest movement. First, let\u2019s\u00a0review what happened over the last few weeks.<\/p>\n

The tax and the protests<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"nettax_meme\"<\/p>\n

On October 26, four days after the internet tax was announced more than 10,000 protesters marched\u00a0to the governing FIDESZ party\u2019s headquarters, some of them throwing old computer parts at the\u00a0building. The protest was a bottom-up initiative: people had had enough. Or at least some of them.\u00a0The last five years were all about overnight-laws, largely in the form of regulations that were enacted\u00a0without the required preparation or due consideration: neither experts nor stakeholders were consulted.\u00a0Why now? Why the internet? Protesters are trying to find answers to these questions\u00a0themselves. They argue on blogs, the Facebook page of the protest, and produce many self-reflective\u00a0memes.<\/p>\n

If I had to summarise all the jokes and memes, it would go\u00a0something like this: \u2018We know this tax is all about control, and\u00a0we should be shouting for the freedom of information, and\u00a0what not. And we just shout for our torrents. But hey, at least\u00a0we are shouting.\u2019<\/p>\n

And yet, that Sunday night was a new hope for a many us both inside and outside the borders. Maybe there is a tipping point.\u00a0As political opposition has disintegrated, the only way anything\u00a0can be changed is through a bottom-up, self-organised\u00a0approach: the people. But do people know what\u2019s actually\u00a0happening in a country where more than 90% percent of the\u00a0media reach is in the hands of the government and their\u00a0friends?<\/p>\n

It\u2019s probable that most Hungarians react as they did in the \u201980s. They know the official news is a\u00a0\u2018different reality\u2019, but they don\u2019t know or care about other sources of information. They simply close\u00a0their doors, as they did for 50 years, and take no notice until the problem comes knocking.\u00a0Alternatively, they leave the country before it happens, before it affects their lives directly. The official\u00a0version is 300, 000 expats, the unofficial estimate is over a million.<\/p>\n

So a mass protest like this comes as a surprise.<\/p>\n

A lot of the participants consider this hope fragile. \u2018Yet we have to be here.\u2019 they say. \u2018There are so many ways to fail, but we have to do this. We have to try.\u2019 The main risks they talk about are:<\/p>\n

\u2022 The remains of the opposition, discredited politicians trying to hijack the protests and sour the mass. The organizers, and many bloggers and commentators called upon them and warned them not to come.
\n\u2022 Government-organized ultras, football hooligans mingling with the crowd, starting riots. On October 26, there were ultras in the crowd, and they tried to start vandalising. Luckily there were not many of them, as the protest was very spontaneous. Their organizers didn\u2019t have time to get more people. Still, national television and FIDESZ\u2019s H\u00edr TV covered the protest as riots, a brutal attack on FIDESZ headquarters, showing ultras.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The government started to back down on the internet\u00a0tax initiative, introducing a new capped version, while\u00a0depicting the protesters as a \u2018minor crowd\u2019 of\u00a0hooligans. In two days, another protest was organised.<\/span><\/p>\n

On October 28, the protest continued. Reuters cited about 100,000 participants (probably inspired by\u00a0the name of the Facebook-group 100,000 Against\u00a0Internet Tax) while the pro-government media a more conservative 8-10,000. Another\u00a0example of parallel realities in Hungary. The raw reality<\/a> is\u00a0about 15-20,000.\u00a0On October 28 it became clear, this is not only about\u00a0torrenting the latest episodes of Game of Thrones.\u00a0EU flags, and the most popular slogans, \u2018We want\u00a0Europe\u2019, \u2018Russians get lost\u2019, \u2018Victator\u2019 reveal this is\u00a0about the values behind the protests.<\/p>\n

And then Orb\u00e1n speaks on the radio.<\/p>\n

What did Orb\u00e1n actually say?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Orb\u00e1n spoke about the issue during an interview on a national radio morning show. International\u00a0media interprets his words as a retreat. And that is a big mistake. There is a good wrap up of what he\u00a0actually said in \u00c9va S. Balogh\u2019s article<\/a>. I will highlight only the most important sentences, and\u00a0misunderstandings.<\/p>\n

\u2022 \u2018The tax will be adopted, but not in it\u2019s present form.\u2019
\n\u2022 \u2018People are baffled and influenced on this issue. We have to discuss issues relating to the\u00a0internet,\u2019 (not the tax, the internet!)<\/em> \u2018and the need, because the internet has to be regulated.\u2019
\n\u2022 \u2018We will start a National Consultation about internet in January.\u2019<\/p>\n

Now this is the primary misunderstanding. International media reported \u2018a national consultation\u2019. But\u00a0this is incorrect; note the capitalisation. You imagined a consultation with experts and stakeholders, and\u00a0the public? You are mistaken. It is important to understand what is meant by National Consultation.<\/p>\n

An advanced populist tool<\/strong><\/p>\n

National Consultation is an advanced populist tool, introduced in 2010. It is used in cases when the\u00a0government faces controversial political issues, but needs to appear as if it has vast public support. It\u00a0comes in the form of an expensive direct mail campaign: a questionnaire containing very loaded\u00a0questions sent to every Hungarian household. The questions and the options are formulated in a way\u00a0that;<\/p>\n

\u2022 they are direct propaganda material for FIDESZ supporters,
\n\u2022 they are literally impossible to answer if someone disagrees with the government\u2019s suggestions.<\/p>\n

There is no transparent analysis, details have never been published, but all five National Consultations\u00a0were announced as a great victory: the vast majority of the population agrees with the government.<\/p>\n

So what to expect?<\/strong><\/p>\n

An internet tax in one year. And heavy handed regulation of the internet \u2018supported by a\u00a0majority, according to the consultation\u2019.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Publicist P\u00e9ter \u00daj wrote<\/a>: \u2018Orb\u00e1n is not a good strategist but an excellent tactician.\u2019 I agree. He\u00a0managed to perplex protesters (should we continue or not?), and bluff western media. Good move.<\/p>\n

The next protests are scheduled on November 17. With less protesters or more? Nobody knows.<\/p>\n

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