{"id":19257,"date":"2020-04-22T20:29:53","date_gmt":"2020-04-22T18:29:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/euroalter.local\/?p=19257"},"modified":"2020-04-22T20:29:53","modified_gmt":"2020-04-22T18:29:53","slug":"with-without-germany","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/euroalter.com\/fr\/with-without-germany\/","title":{"rendered":"Moving forward – With or Without Germany"},"content":{"rendered":"

An article by Alvaro Vasconcelos<\/em><\/p>\n

The Eurogroup decision on support for Southern Europe on April 9 may have incidentally anticipated some of the dramatic implications that would otherwise have attended the outcome of the European Council\u2019s meeting on 23 April.\u00a0 Nevertheless, that meeting will still be no less decisive for the future of Europe\u2019s response to the extremely serious health, economic and social consequences of the pandemic that we all now face.\u00a0 Even if the Council does not go much beyond what was proposed by the Eurogroup, it will still be a leap into the unknown, and that will force those who defend the European ideal to rethink their attitude towards the European Union itself.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The consensus reached by the Eurogroup on 9 April, underlined the importance of the fact that the Union actually existed but that is no longer enough, given the magnitude of the challenge that we face.\u00a0 Now we must move beyond the repeated drama over European \u2018unity\u2019 and our endless concerns over the threat of rupture \u2013 treated behind-the-scenes by repeated negotiation and concessions to political threats that are often repugnant so that Europe\u2019s leaders can sigh with relief each time that \u2018unity\u2019 is preserved, whatever the cost. \u00a0 That, after all, was why the Union was unable to prevent Hungary\u2019s move towards autocracy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Austerity and the \u2018German problem\u2019<\/b><\/h3>\n

In the current crisis there is a problem linked to Germany and its satellite supporters \u2013 Austria, the Netherlands and Finland.\u00a0 Germany is no longer simply the Federal Republic based in Bonn which acted solely with France as the powerhouse of the Union in its early days.\u00a0 Since the end of the Cold War it has reunified with what used to be the German Democratic Republic and is now an emerging power, a global actor responsible for 24.6 per cent of the Union’s output.\u00a0 Now it can disagree with France so that consensus between the two does not necessarily reflect \u2018common interests\u2019.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Yet, even if Angela Merkel appears, in the eyes of many, to be a reliable and moderate leader, the reality is that it was through her government\u2019s support that Wolfgang Sch\u00e4uble, as German finance minister, was able to impose an austerity policy on the countries of Southern Europe during the sovereign debt crisis after 2010, culminating in a threat to expel, Greece from the Union.\u00a0 Ms Merkel still had the same affable public image throughout the crisis, but could Mr Sch\u00e4uble, her finance minister, have acted without her approval? The Greek premier,\u00a0 Alexis Tsipras, was of little use to the German Chancellor’s ‘understanding’ of the crisis his country faced or of what Germany\u2019s ‘friendship’ entailed, hence the threat of expulsion.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0In effect, by vetoing the project, the group around Germany \u2013 despite what they may say \u2013 rejects the fact that the European Union is more than just an economic market, but a real political project as well.<\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

That question of \u2018friendship\u2019 and \u2018understanding\u2019 has now re-emerged in a new guise over the question of the \u2018coronabond\u2019 \u2013 a Europe-wide bond to finance the extraordinary costs of dealing with the economic consequences of the pandemic.\u00a0 After all, it is only against the background of German support and Ms Merkel\u2019s indulgence that the Dutch could openly veto the coronabonds project, which is essentially based on the principle that the debt incurred by all is guaranteed by all.\u00a0 In effect, by vetoing the project, the group around Germany \u2013 despite what they may say \u2013 rejects the fact that the European Union is more than just an economic market, but a real political project as well.<\/span><\/p>\n

Without the coronabond mechanism, or a similar Europe-wide initiative, the decision not to apply rules governing public debt will become a trap because, if it is not amalgamated into a Europe-wide financial instrument, the interest repayment facing the most vulnerable states in Europe (who will require the greatest amount of financial support, given the severity of the pandemic they face) will become enormous.\u00a0 Within two years they will once again desperately need financial support, only to be greeted by the same austerity policies that did them so much damage a decade ago.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Germany and its allies are also opposed to the French proposal for a European emergency fund, which parallels a similar initiative in the United States to respond to the crisis there.\u00a0 It would involve trillions of euros \u2013 Spain\u2019s premier, Pedro Sanchez, proposes 1.5 trillion euros \u2013 as a Europe-wide responsibility.\u00a0 Yet without access to European funding to deal with the economic consequences that we in the South will experience after the pandemic is over, we will face a depression that could be even worse than that experienced in the 1930s.\u00a0 And that led to fascism! \u00a0 We will see the far right gaining power not only in countries of southern Europe, but also in the north of the continent, despite the moral superiority with which it regards itself.<\/span><\/p>\n

The European Council<\/b><\/h3>\n

It is the Dutch government that appears to be the bad guy in the current crisis, but does anyone think that the Netherlands would be able to act in ways so detrimental to the European Union if it were opposed by Germany? Of course not!\u00a0 However, waiting for Germany to appreciate the true significance of its misguided treatment of Greece and Southern Europe in the sovereign debt crisis a decade ago is like waiting for Godot.\u00a0 We simply do not know whether he will come or not or whether Germany will bring itself to change its austerity mindset \u2013 and that is the drama that attends the European Council meeting on April 24.\u00a0 In this respect, therefore, the letter signed by nine EU states, including France, Italy, Spain \u2013 three of the four largest European economies representing 39.8 per cent of the Union\u2019s economic output \u2013 and Portugal, is good news. The group, too, is given added weight through France\u2019s political power as a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council and the only nuclear power in the European Union.<\/span><\/p>\n

Waiting for Germany to appreciate the true significance of its misguided treatment of Greece and Southern Europe in the sovereign debt crisis a decade ago is like waiting for Godot.\u00a0<\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

In the event of a stalemate in the Council on Friday, the nine should come forward with a cooperative initiative, in conjunction with the Union’s other mechanisms, to mutualise their debt. The precedent here will be the European stability mechanism which has been approved by the European Court of Justice. This will demonstrate to Germany that they can go ahead without it if they are forced to. This is possibly the only way to prevent Italy, where Matteo Salvini is awaiting his turn in the political limelight, from leaving the Union and following the autocratic path set out by Hungary.<\/span><\/p>\n

The nine should also take the debate beyond merely a discussion of financial means to solve the current funding crisis to show that such means will form part of a new policy which will not compromise on issues of democracy and social justice, in short, a project to refund the European Union itself. They should present a programme of solidarity to confront the pandemic and a programme of economic recovery, inspired by Franklin D. Roosevelt\u2019s \u2018New Deal \u2018 in the 1930s which brought the Great Depression to an end.\u00a0 This programme, however must combat existing inequalities and the current social, health and ecological challenges that we face.\u00a0 It should, in short, become a Green New Deal as we prepare to face the even greater challenge of climate change by mid-century.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

It should, in short, become a Green New Deal as we prepare to face the even greater challenge of climate change by mid-century.\u00a0<\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

And we need to think of the ethos behind such projects; of a Europe territorially confined, perhaps, but open to the world, which would make the ideal of common humanity its creed and multilateralism its security guarantee, in which \u2018hospitality\u2019 becomes its credo.\u00a0 That would provide a moral horizon on which, at this time of anguish about the future, most of us could willingly agree. Many in Germany and in its three strongest supporters would enthusiastically endorse such a project, given their democratic traditions and strong European and federalist currents.\u00a0 Such a project is utopian, no doubt, but it is an achievable utopia. Great utopias arise when the human imagination is stimulated to seek solutions to great tragedies.\u00a0 After all, the European Community itself, imagined in the midst of the dystopia of the Second World War, emerged in its aftermath.\u00a0 As Vaclav Havel once said, “Without dreaming of a better Europe, we will not have a better Europe”.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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